The New Economics of Advertising

July 27, 2008

Bad News For MySpace: Growth Curve Flattened. Good News For MySpace: It’s A Real Business

Filed under: Fox,social network — Dash @ 4:20 pm

Bad News For MySpace: Growth Curve Flattened. Good News For MySpace: It’s A Real Business

murdoch-and-tom.jpgBad news for Rupert Murdoch: Goldman Sachs figures his Internet business is worth perhaps $3 billion — about half the value he was trying to get for it earlier this year. The good news: Goldman didn’t generate its numbers by placing a value on the eyeballs that MySpace and the rest of Fox Interactive Media have attracted, or even the revenue they’re generating. Instead, Goldman derived its estimate based on FIM’s earnings. That is:MySpace and the rest of Murdoch’s Web properties are now a real business, making real money.

That’s worth remembering as we enter the late stages of the Web 2.0 boom, where buyers and sellers are still scrambling to place a value on revenue-light, or revenue-free, startups like Digg orTwitter. Murdoch and company have been dinged — fairly — for failing to deliver on aggressive revenue and earnings targets the company set out a year ago. And they’re still struggling to convince advertisers to pay up for the billions of page views they generate.

But even if it’s not what Murdoch had hoped for/promised, there is real money there: Analyst Mark Wienkes figures FIM (mostly MySpace, but also Photobucket, IGN, etc) is going to generate $155 million in EBITDA in (calendar year) 2008. At a 15x multiple, that’s $2.3 billion. At 20x, $3.1 billion. That’s about 2x what he spent acquiring the properties in the last few years. And Mark sees MySpace’s top and bottom lines marching steadily upward (note that the chart below is for News Corp.’s fiscal year, which turns over every July).

myspace estimates.png

The disappointment for Murdoch are those year-over-year growth numbers — cable guys, not go-go Web companies, are the ones that are supposed to be delivering 12% growth. But it’s been clear for some time that MySpace’s US audience has peaked, and that it’s going to be fighting very hard against Facebook and other competitors for international eyeballs

July 1, 2008

CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox – In Context With Internet Growth

Filed under: CBS,Fox,social network — Dash @ 3:03 pm
Ed: Impressive numbers from CBS, NBC, ABC, and Fox; however, in context, growth counts. Facebook adds 250,000 members per day. This is the total circulation for a medium sized metropolitan newspaper or TV station.

How Facebook stays afloat adding 250,000 users per day

Posted by Dan Farber

A few weeks ago I talked with Jonathan Heiliger, vice president of technical operations at Facebook, about the challenge of innovating quickly and building stable infrastructure while 250,000 new members are added to the social network every day. Check out the video on ZDNet…

What are the challenges that you see–let’s say you’re at 80 million unique users per month, 250,000 being added per day and 50,000 transactions per second. What happens when you get to 500 million or a billion if you ever get there?
Heiliger: Hopefully, tremendous things. I think we can only look forward to those days…

Quincy Smith Named CEO Of CBS Interactive, CNET

quincy smith.jpgCBS completed its acquisition of CNET and chief executive Les Moonves named Quincy Smith, the dealmaker who pushed the acquisition, as CEO of the expanded digital unit.

Former CNET CEO Neil Ashe becomes president of CBS Interactive, reporting to Smith (SAI 100 #8). After the acquisition, CBS says it’s now the 8th-largest Web network in terms of unduplicated unique visitors, according to ComScore.

The digital group will be organized into five vertical categories. How is CBS integrating its $1.8 billion acquisition? Per CBS’s release:

Technology: CNET.com is the number one Web site in the computer and consumer electronics category, reaching more than 18 million people every month with daily premium content offerings. From the latest product reviews to breaking news from the digital world, as well as video and program downloads, CNET.com has become the leading destination for people looking to navigate today’s digital world…

FIM Moving To New LA HQ In Playa Del Rey; Consolidating All LA Offices

imageFox Interactive Media (NYSE: NWS) is celebrating its third birthday* by finally announcing a new headquarters that should be big enough to house all of its LA staff in one place: 300,000-plus square feet in the Horizon at Playa Vista in Playa Del Rey. In an internal memo to his staff, FIM president Peter Levinsohn described the deal “the single biggest real-estate transaction in Los Angeles in the last 25 years. When we move to our new facility between June of 2009 and January of 2010, not only will we enjoy the distinction of having one of the largest corporate headquarters in the LA area, but we will be housed in a state-of-the-art facility that reflects our corporate identity and culture.” The space includes “an exclusive gym, internal and external eating facilities, volleyball courts, and lots of green space …” It will house about 2000 FIM employees, which is all its LA staff…

ABC Considers Major Online Newscast Overhaul; CBS Looks To CNET, Celebs For Boost

When it comes to all the tropes the broadcast networks continue to cling to, the national evening news shows are arguably the most in need of drastic change. As the shows’ millions viewers are getting older and older, ad support is dwindling. While the networks’ online versions of the nightly news were meant to invigorate the stale productions and attract younger viewers, it turns out that the webcasts are struggling as well. David Westin, ABC’s news-division president, tells WSJ that the Disney-owned network isn’t ready to pull the plug on the two-year-old World News webcasts, but ABC is clearly groping for ways to make its online news relevant. Westin: “I want to look at it and say, ‘What have we learned from it?’ ‘How can we reconfigure it?’ ‘What can we do better?’”

– ABC’s numbers: Last Monday, internal traffic showed ABCNews.com logged 7.8 million pageviews, though the company claims it averages about 8.4 million. Within that, the 15-minuteWorld News webcast got 145,000 hits, while three million clicks went to the news site’s photo gallery featuring shots of celebrities and “the pregnant man.” Though general hard news has been met with indifference, sections devoted to health and politics have been relative bright spots, suggesting that ABC might try to focus on niche verticals.

– CBS’ (NYSE: CBS) solution: celebs and tech: CBS plans to overhaul its online news with some assistance from CNET (NSDQ: CNET) once the merger closes. And noticing the same insatiable appetite for celebrity news, CBS Interactive promises to deliver more of that kind of coverage with a new destination due “in coming weeks.”…

Sports Shorts: ESPN360-Cricket; NBCU-Beijing; YES-NYT

– ESPN360.com Will Carry Exclusive Live Cricket Coverage: ESPN360.com has the exclusive U.S. broadband rights to live and replay coverage of the 2008 Asian Cup Cricket Tournament from Pakistan June 24-July 6. The six-team, 13-match biennial tournament includes national teams from Pakistan, India, UAE, Bangladesh, Hong Kong and Sri Lanka. ESPN’s (NYSE: DISCricinfo.comwill carry extensive highlights and provide 3D animation of each match.

– Vista Media Center Users Can Download NBC Olympic Video HighlightsYesterday I wrote about NBC Sports demanding that audio and video from Olympics trials come down from other sites before Beijing. Here’s an example of how NBC is trying to expand access to its own video, albeit in a very limited way: NBC Olympics on the Go, powered by Wavexpress, will allow viewers with Windows Vista Media Center to set up automatic syncing of NBC-provided channels to laptops for commuter viewing “up-to-HD quality on the go”. No word on whether this will work with portable devices that usually can sync with Media Center but it doesn’t sound like it. Release

May 29, 2008

Murdoch: WSJ Will Take NYT Market Share In "Months"; Baffled By The YHOO/MSFT Mess (NWS)

Filed under: Fox,newspaper — Dash @ 3:17 pm

Murdoch: WSJ Will Take NYT Market Share In “Months”; Baffled By The YHOO/MSFT Mess (NWS)

Murdoch d2.jpgWe love listening to Rupert Murdoch talk, mostly because Rupert Murdoch loves to talk. But perhaps because we’re professional Rupe-watchers, we’ve heard a lot of what he had to say about News Corp., the news business, MySpace, etc. On the other hand, because his D chat was a leisurely, discursive romp of an interview, there was all sorts of interesting Rupe musings about the economy (the U.S. is deeply screwed for at least 18 months, but he’s a big believer in a long boom), politics (he hasn’t decided who he’s voting for, but he’s ready for Obama to make him a believer), and Keith Olbermann (not interested in hiring back his former employee to work at Fox News, in case you were wondering). We’ll sum that up in a separate post.

For the tech and businesss set:

  • Rupe talked a big game re: plans for the WSJ. He thinks he’ll take market share from the NYT in a matter of months by pushing into general news.
  • He can’t figure out the Yahoo/Microsoft deal at all: He doesn’t understand how Jerry’s been able to not sell the company when offered a huge premium, and he can’t figure out why Microsoft was unable to make it happen. One theory: MSFT isn’t used to making huge deals.
  • Hulu important to him because it’s a way to control his copyrighted material. But if that’s the case, why didn’t he sue YouTube, a la Viacom? “We had mixed feelings about it, but when it came down to it, we figured it was doing more to promote our shows than it was to hurt them”.

Transcript notes follow, video at end of post…


Will Newspapers Survive? [The Chart]

News Corporation boss Rupert Murdoch told the Wall Street Journal’s All Things Digital conference that print newspapers would outlast him. Not so sure. Industry analyst Mark Potts has been telling clients that rising online advertising will finally offset the decline of print revenues by about 2012. (That’s his chart on the right, with online revenue in red making up for the shrinking blue, so overtaken by events that it now represents the optimistic scenario.) But the American Journalism Review challenges Potts’ assumptions: traditional newspaper revenues are declining more rapidly than the analyst predicted; and the AJR’s Charles Layton reckons their websites will never make up the difference (see left). Ouch.

May 8, 2008

News Corp: Selling Ads For MySpace Is Hard Work!

Filed under: AdNet,Fox,social network — Dash @ 2:34 pm

News Corp: Selling Ads For MySpace Is Hard Work!

Silicon Alley Insider by 

News Corp. execs did more than just admit that they weren’t going to hit their revenue goals for MySpace and Fox Interactive Media today. They also fessed up to another open secret: Selling ads on social networks is a really difficult.

How difficult? Consider that even while MySpace and all of the other FIM sites continued to grow, FIM revenues dropped from $233 million in Q2 to $210 million in Q3; about a third of that total came from a 3-year guaranteed deal from Google.

That explains why former FIM chief revenue officer Mike Barrett got shown the door last month. But News Corp. COO Peter Chernin didn’t point the finger at Barrett for the shortfall, and he didn’t blame the larger economy, either — even though his boss Rupert Murdoch said that US consumer spending was “stressed”.

Instead, Chernin said, FIM/MySpace’s problem is endemic to all social networks: It’s awfully difficult to turn all those page views into money. Our paraphrase of his remarks:

We remain incredibly optimistic about social media. But there are specific challenges 1) Tons of inventory. Lack of scarcity creates a liquidity challenge. Working on bringing big brands aboard. 2) People who are visiting social networks there for different reasons, different uses. Figuring out how to target. 3) What’s the value of a “friend”? Trying to figure out new metrics to communicate with marketers.

None of this is news. The news is that News Corp. is now saying it out loud, and tempering expectations for MySpace, which a couple of years ago looked unstoppable. Now it looks more like a very big, very hard to monetize Web property.

For the record, Chernin spent much of the call talking up MySpace/FIM’s prospects, which aren’t awful — they’re just not as good as they thought they were a year ago. Here’s a summary of his talking points:

  • Branded revenue is up 21% over last year and branded sell-through is trending up for the year with a 19% increase from Q1 to Q3.
  • Performance revenues were up 24% year over year.
  • Most importantly, as MySpace user base continues to grow, we’re actually earning more money per user. FY 08 revenue [display + search] per unique is up 49% over last year.
  • 54% of all social network ad dollars are going to MySpace (eMarketer, 12/07)
  • Hundreds of HyperTargeting campaigns have been run in last eight months – with 20% or more of all orders today including HyperTargeting.
  • Seeing double CPMs for HyperTargeting vs. non-Hyper-Targeted
  • Orders with HyperTargeting are about 60% larger
  • Enjoying considerable number of repeat orders with about 75% of advertisers ordering HyperTargeting again.
  • Also, seeing successes in sales of key pages with sought-after branded advertisers and attracting many high-profile brands for the first time this quarter, including Novartis, Wrigley, Virgin Mobile, Unilever and Toyota. Several have stepped up to the popular branded ‘skin’ of the MySpace home page which goes for a 70% premium on the standard homepage buy.
  • Major category growth including Automotive, up 73%, Consumer Electronics, up more than 300%, Beverage, up 600% and Education up 850% year over year.
  • MySpace is at an all time high in terms of audience reach and engagement according to both comScore and Neilsen — more than doubling Facebook’s U.S. audience with 73 million users compared to Facebook’s 36 million.
  • And minutes spent on MySpace in the U.S. far surpass Facebook – 242 vs. 167 minutes per user per month.
  • MySpace TV continues to grow and is the number two online video site after YouTube.
  • IGN and Photobucket are up 40% year to year in unique visitors worldwide. IGN remains the number one games information property and in the past quarter, its Direct2Drive service surpassed one million games sold. Photobucket’s worldwide page views for March 2008 were 2 billion – up 85% year on year
  • FoxSports.com is up over 20% in worldwide unique visitors year on year and recently launched its mobile WAP site expanding its reach further – the Number one mobile WAP site for mobile sports information.

Coming Soon To The Endangered Species List: Online Ad Sales Teams?

from paidContent.org by 

The self-serve ads option has been all the rage for search ads the last few years. Increasingly, now, do-it-yourself is becoming similarly popular for the display ad space. Over the past several months, a number of companies have come up with DIY offerings: Fox Interactive Media (NYSE: NWS)began testing a self-serve option for its local TV websites and on MySpace, as Facebook’s DIY program has been drawing interest from small advertisers as well.  Meanwhile, a slew of relatively new vendors like AdBrite, AdReady and AdItAll have all been pushing self-serve display-buying options as well. On the web publisher side, AOL (NYSE: TWXjust released PubAccess, a self-serve tool aimed at small publishers as a way to manage their display ads. Google (NSDQ: GOOG), which was credited with helping spur the rise of search ads with its self-serve system, has launched a similar service. Lots more after the jump

– Less hassles at low prices: The WSJ points out that the emergence of DIY ad services for display have the potential bring in greater numbers of small advertisers who can’t afford display ads through the current route. Self-service also appeals to those marketers who can’t afford demands like Yahoo’s (NSDQ: YHOO) usual service, which requires advertisers to commit thousands of dollars per month as a price of admission to place display ads across its portal. Contrast that with the few cents its costs to reach a thousand users with Facebook’s and MySpace’s DIY systems. Aside from the cost, the typical DIY method of buying display ads is a tortuous, time-consuming one: as the WSJ explains, the exercise generally entails choosing among 15 standard sizes and several basic formats; then advertisers have to pay someone to design the ad; once that’s done, they have to pick which network to buy space from, test the ads and ultimately track them. The other option involves paying an agency still more thousands to handle the job for them, something smaller marketers can’t do.

– Going the way of travel agents?: Display ads are expected to be 40 percent of the $20 billion online ad market over the next few years. That growth is dependent on the process becoming more simple and less expensive. As the self-serve option takes hold, WSJ compares the likely shakeup in the online ad industry to that of travel agents, a business that has been marginalized as consumers have tended to plan their own trips online as well. So although ad sales teams function might be as essential as a result of all this increased automation, the current system isn’t like to hold either, given that sites are already having trouble hiking their prices and stagnation is a possibility. The prospect of self-serve options bringing a wider class of advertisers into the system and making the practice less costly and arduous is, in the end, considered crucial to the growth of the online ad industry.

TV Ad Sellers To Ad Buyers: Don’t Even Think About Spending Money On The Web!

Silicon Alley Insider by 

onlineadvertising.jpgJust in time for the network upfronts, which start next week, the Television Bureau of Advertising and Nielsen roll out a study to remind everyone that Americans still spend 53% of their media time in front of the tube.

Not sold on TV ads? Then the study has another nugget for you: When Nielsen asked 1,246 adults which ads were “most persuasive,” only 5.1% said ads on the Internet. That’s a lot lower than TV (69.9%), newspapers (9.5%), and even radio (7.5%).

Of course, most of the ads consumers are exposed to on the Web are crappy, low CPM ads anyway. And we’ll point out again who’s sponsoring this study: TV advertisers.

But we bet that there’s likely an underlying truth here: Consumers have become hardened to the barrage of commercial messages they’re served on the Web. None of this, though, solves TV’s fundamental problem: That it has been losing viewers over time, and that the trend is certain to accelerate.

April 24, 2008

NEWS: MySpace Apps Moves Out Of Beta

Filed under: Fox,social network — Dash @ 2:42 pm

MySpace Apps Moves Out Of Beta

MySpace Application Gallery, MySpace’s app directory which launched in limited beta back in March, is now fully live and open to the public.

The MySpace application gallery allows users to browse applications and integrate them into their MySpace page and profile, giving what MySpace describes as “a more engaging and entertaining online experience.”

The biggest difference between todays launch and the beta launch is a link on the main MySpace page to the app page: minor in words but major in promoting MySpaces apps to MySpace’s user base. Users will also have one-click access to the Application Gallery from their home page through their individual control panels.

Since the beta launch, the MySpace Application Gallery has resulted in over 2.1 million installs from over 1,000 approved applications.

MySpace Apps Are Go For All Users


MySpace officially opened its Application Gallery to all users this morning after launching it in public beta last March. In that time over 1,000 applications have been approved and added to the gallery and there have been over 2.1 million application installs across the site. Today, MySpace began promoting applications to users by adding an i… ReadWriteWeb

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